After the last few days of what’s happening in LA, and now spreading to other cities, I’m curious if people are upgrading or downgrading their prediction of whether democracy can survive Trump?
I honestly can talk myself into either story. This is bad, and could end up in military rule. But it also has a strong look of the administration overplaying its hand, and overestimating its degree of support. I don’t know that it can handling ongoing significant protests in most major cities. I also don’t know that the military will get on board with killing civilians in large numbers, which is clearly where the administration intends to take this.
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I recorded an episode yesterday with Pat Eddington that touches on a lot of this, and will come out either tonight or tomorrow.
As Yogi Berra allegedly said, “It’s difficult to make predicirons, especially if its about the future.” I think American democracy as we know it is already irrevocably changed. Biden attempted to return to the status quo ante, and his failure is instructive. No one knows what comes next, but if American democracy is to endure, it needs to be reimagined and reinvented out the possibilities that actually exist in the present moment. If the Los Angeles demonstratations spread and a new movement is born out of it; if enough people gear up their courage; If the movement progresses to the level of a nation-wide general strike; if new inspirational leaders appear to speak on its behalf; it the Supreme Court is able to take courage from the general level of civic resistance; if the new movement is able to articulate specific goals that are implementable and can gain general support; then there is hope. But that is so many “ifs.”
I can also imagine other possibilities—that most people are complacent and just don’t care all that much about democracy. That after a show of brutal military force and a continuation of gestapo-like and gulag-like tactics, that most people who know better will be cowed. That most people like seeing someone play the performative role of a strongman. That liberalism and elitism have become so conflated in the popular mind that its brand has become unredeemable. There seem to be more ways that things can go wrong than can go right. I remind myself that the Thousand Year Reich lasted only 12 years, that Peron, Franco, Salazar, and Pinochet are long gone, and that there will be a moment after this one that may hold possibilities for rebirth. I am getting to be an old man, and I just hope to live long enough to see that day, and that the planet isn’t damaged beyond repair by the time that time comes around. Meanwhile, I will be participating in the No Kings demonstrations near my home on Saturday.
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I’m seriously considering going to my local No Kings demonstration, but admit to being mildly nervous at how it might be received, and whether I’m entirely safe. I’ve never felt that before about a demonstration; not that I’ve been to many.
I think there is a silver lining in that at least they are being very obvious about who they are and it’s obvious to anyone who is paying attention that doesn’t work for the Times.
I’m going to the one in Denver.
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A lot will depend on what happens in ~18 hours when they have to pull the Guard out or just plunge us into a full on military coup.
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I am planning to bring my eldest unless things look rough. Ours is at the capitol grounds and the capitol police usually just sit back and watch.
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I see Adam Gurri says he’s going too.
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